Wall Street closed Election Day with a selective revival of the artificial-intelligence trade that had come under pressure in recent weeks. Chipmakers halted a selloff driven by worries that the AI spending spree was becoming harder to justify, lifting the S&P 500 even as most of its constituents fell. In after-hours trading, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Super Micro Computer Inc. delivered forecasts that exceeded expectations, reinforcing the view that demand for data-center processors and AI servers remains robust. Bonds fell and the dollar rose. Oil prices eased, yet that was insufficient to support Treasuries amid solid job-openings data. US equity futures edged higher as investors awaited midterm results. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent at 7:01 p.m. in New York, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 itself advanced 0.4 percent during regular trading, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7 percent after paring a Monday decline that had pushed the gauge into correction territory, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 2.6 percent.
November has historically been a favorable month for equities, yet the recent tech weakness had raised questions about market leadership. At Edward Jones, Brian Therien said the recent rotation represented less a rejection of AI’s potential than a reassessment of the price investors are willing to pay for it. Markets still assign premium valuations to companies that demonstrate strong demand, rising AI-related revenue, and the ability to fund additional investment internally. The firm continues to recommend an overweight allocation to equities, with a preference for US large- and mid-cap stocks. Apollo Global Management Inc. said it plans to take a more defensive approach to its investments tied to AI as the asset manager plows billions into financing the infrastructure buildout. “We know that society will use dramatically more computing power in the future,” that demand for chips will remain strong, “and that AI capabilities are improving at an extraordinary rate,” Apollo President Jim Zelter said. “What we don’t know is how pricing and economics will evolve.”
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has never been lower twelve months after a midterm election, noted Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “The results could act as a clearing event removing some uncertainty, though developments around the AI theme and geopolitics are the primary forces driving markets heading into the final two months of the year,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones. “Tuesday’s elections could reshape the balance of power in Washington,” said Ken Mahoney at Mahoney Asset Management. “This will be good to put behind us as it has been an anticipated volatility event for quite some time.” Many traders expect the midterms to serve as a clearing event for the S&P 500, which has traded in a tight range since July. To UBS Securities, US stocks may be poised for a year-end rebound as favorable seasonality and low hedge-fund positioning set the stage. “Hyperscaler earnings clearly did not provide the all-clear investors were hoping for, but getting through the election could be the catalyst that unlocks a year-end squeeze,” Davide Montoni of UBS wrote. Large-cap equities have gained about 15 percent on a market-cap-weighted basis and 16 percent on an equal-weighted basis in the six months after midterms since 1982, data compiled by Morgan Stanley show. Both measures have advanced roughly 22 percent over the subsequent year. Wall Street expects stocks to fall if Democrats regain control of both houses of Congress. “A Democratic sweep of Congress would probably be the least desirable outcome for tech stocks and risk assets more broadly,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade in Sydney. “A split Congress, or an unexpected Republican hold, would offer more policy continuity and prove less disruptive.”
Midterm Contests, Legal Battles, and the Cost of Living
Polls closed in Georgia and South Carolina, both states with critical Senate races, as Americans rendered their verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump’s turbulent second term. Early results could offer clues on the outcome of the midterms, which have been dominated by voter frustration over the high cost of living, including fuel prices that spiked after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran. Other states that have fully or partially closed polls include Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Kentucky. The first polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern time. Both polling and historical trends favor Democrats to take a majority in the House of Representatives, while Senate control remains harder to predict. Democrats have grown increasingly bullish as opinion polls show them holding an advantage. Republicans have been forced to spend time and money defending seats in typically red states including Kansas, Texas, Alaska, and South Carolina. Voters reported grievances with the president’s leadership, according to The Voter Poll. About three-quarters of midterm voters said they felt “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the direction of the country under Trump. About six in ten attributed high prices “more to Trump’s policies” than factors outside his control. If Democrats take even one chamber, it would mark a clear rebuke to the president and his party just two years after his dominant White House comeback. Trump pledged during the 2024 campaign to tackle inflation and keep the US out of overseas conflicts, and surveys show many of those who supported him in the last election have buyer’s remorse.
To take control of the House, Democrats need a net gain of just three seats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has projected a Democratic increase of between fifteen and twenty-five House members. In the Senate, Democrats would need to flip four Republican-held seats to win. It could take weeks to know the final result, given individual states’ rules around counting mail-in votes and longer tabulation times in states that use ranked-choice ballots. The election has taken a back seat to the AI trade for much of Wall Street, though the outcome could have implications for sectors ranging from cryptocurrency to defense. A Republican loss would have tangible consequences for Trump’s final two years. The president has thus far enjoyed a supine Congress, which has confirmed his controversial cabinet nominees, passed his signature tax-cut legislation, and largely refrained from curbing his tariff powers or military operations against Iran. Should they return to power, Democrats have indicated they will investigate Trump and his allies. The president and Democrats would also be forced to work together on consequential fiscal matters, including government funding and lifting the debt ceiling. If Republicans overperform, it could provide a political boost to Trump, similar to how then-President Joe Biden seized on Democrats’ better-than-expected results in the 2022 midterms. In the month before Election Day, Trump held more than a dozen rallies, mostly in Republican strongholds. But with his approval rating at rock bottom, those appeals were seen as a mixed blessing. Several Republicans expressed discomfort with Trump’s unusual closing message, which included riffs on his Washington renovation projects and Ohio Senator Jon Husted’s physique. An October New York Times/Siena University poll found likely voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle a wide range of issues including the economy, foreign wars, and immigration.
There are already legal challenges and more court fights are expected if the results of key races are close. The Justice Department has appealed a federal judge’s decision to throw out a lawsuit to preemptively stop Alaska from certifying the results of its Senate race if the Republican candidate loses narrowly. The Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s bid to force thousands of California ballots to be set aside over unproven claims they were cast by non-citizens. A federal appeals court cleared the Trump administration to potentially resume pressuring state and local election officials to prevent voting by people it claims may be noncitizens. In a 6-5 decision on Tuesday, the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals lifted a San Francisco judge’s ruling that had barred the Justice Department from demanding state and local election officials set aside disputed ballots, or threatening prosecution if they count them. The latest appeals court ruling is a significant win for the administration, which has faced a number of legal setbacks in recent days. However, other court orders remain in place blocking US officials from carrying out certain controversial election-related actions. A Monday order by a Washington, DC, judge barred the administration from sending lists of potential noncitizens to state and local officials. Another judge prohibited US officials from making ballot segregation demands in California. The clash stems from contested claims by the Justice Department that Homeland Security investigators uncovered evidence that large numbers of registered voters may be noncitizens. US officials urged California to set aside ballots cast by as many as 20,000 people pending investigations and sent a similar demand regarding roughly 400 individuals in Washington state. California and Washington state officials say the lists appear riddled with errors, and they accused the administration of trying to sow doubt in the election results.
Acting in a lawsuit by labor and civil rights groups, US District Judge Trina Thompson in San Francisco issued a temporary order on October 30 that said the Justice Department may not “threaten, intimidate or coerce” election officials to get them to stop processing disputed ballots. When the larger panel handed down its final decision Tuesday afternoon, the Trump administration prevailed, with six Republican-appointed judges in the majority. Although the appeals court as a whole didn’t explain its decision, two judges said in a concurring opinion that Thompson had overstepped. “A district court does not generally have the authority to enter an injunction prohibiting the Department of Justice from expressing its views about criminal statutes, even if the court determines that those views are incorrect,” Judge Eric Miller wrote. Five dissenting judges said the decision couldn’t be squared with an October 30 9th Circuit ruling that barred the Justice Department from forcing the state to set aside the 20,000 disputed ballots. The Supreme Court on Monday rejected the administration’s challenge to that ruling. “If defendants cannot dictate these procedures directly, then they likewise cannot dictate them by subjecting vulnerable election workers to baseless — but chilling — threats of federal prosecution,” Chief Judge Mary Murguia wrote for the dissenters. Late Tuesday, the labor and civil rights groups asked the 9th Circuit to take the highly unusual step of having the entire appeals court reconsider the decision. California Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office has been highly critical of the DOJ’s ongoing effort.
Americans driving to the polls paid gas prices averaging over $4 a gallon for the first time on record on an election day. US gas prices averaged $4.13 a gallon as of 10:00 a.m. New York time on Tuesday, according to GasBuddy. That’s the most expensive price ever recorded on November 3 of any year. It’s also more expensive than any prior election day, including 2022, according to Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis. The prices today are below the highs set this year of over $4.56 a gallon in May, and they’re down from a national average near $4.50 in late September, according to AAA. But the $4 price tag has never stuck on gas station marquees so late into the year, the result of snarled global energy shipments and a refining crisis spurred by the US-Iran war, continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, and limited exports from China. Gas prices are still lower than they were in 2022 on an inflation-adjusted basis. In 2024 dollars, pump prices were over $4 a gallon on the week of election day in 2010 and 2012, according to an Institute for Progress analysis. High pump prices have turned into a central talking point for Democratic candidates. Trump has repeatedly stated that pump prices will fall once the war ends. Diesel prices averaged $6.29 a gallon as of Monday, according to AAA — just 24 cents off all-time highs set in September, and similarly the most expensive on record for election day. While gasoline supplies are well below seasonal norms, diesel supplies have never been this low at this time of year.
AI Infrastructure Demand and Corporate Earnings
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. gave a sales forecast that soared past analysts’ projections. Fourth-quarter revenue will be $17 billion, plus or minus 3 percent, easily topping the average analyst estimate of $16.3 billion and helping send the shares up about 7 percent in late trading. “AMD’s earnings are simultaneously a test of its own performance and of the broader AI trade,” Emarketer analyst Jacob Bourne said. The results “will give investors encouragement given the recent tech and semiconductor selloff.” AMD’s outlook — along with a strong forecast from Super Micro — helped spark a late-trading rally among AI equipment makers and cloud providers. Shares of companies from CoreWeave Inc. and Nebius Group NV to Dell Technologies Inc. and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. all gained. Under Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su, AMD has become one of the most important suppliers of processors and computers that operate at the heart of AI facilities. Even with recent market turbulence, AMD shares have more than doubled this year. The company’s valuation reached $1 trillion in September. The data-center growth has helped AMD offset a slump in the personal-computer market, where rising memory-chip costs have slowed production and depressed user demand. Intel Corp. suffered its worst stock decline in decades after a downbeat earnings report last week. One possible weak spot for AMD: Its gross margin will narrow to about 55 percent in the fourth quarter from 56 percent in the previous period. Su said the company has become more optimistic about long-term growth. It expects revenue to increase more than 80 percent next year, outpacing the 75 percent expansion seen by Wall Street. Sales from data centers will more than double, accounting for as much as 80 percent of total revenue. The company “has strong confidence in our ability to sustain exceptional revenue growth for years to come, with earnings growing even faster,” Su said. AMD’s third-quarter sales rose 45 percent to $13.4 billion. Profit climbed to $2.09 a share, minus certain items. Analysts had predicted revenue of $13.1 billion and earnings of $1.97 a share. Sales at AMD’s data-center business nearly doubled to $8.5 billion. PC and gaming-related sales shrank 8 percent to $3.7 billion. The total PC market will decline by a double-digit percentage next year, Su said. AMD is debuting new product ranges in both the CPU and accelerator markets and is taking on Nvidia more directly with its Helios server design. Nvidia continues updating its own lineup at a fast pace.
Super Micro Computer Inc. forecast revenue of $19.5 billion to $21.5 billion in the three months ending in December. Profit, excluding some items, will be $1.66 to $1.90 a share. Analysts projected sales of $16.5 billion and profit of $1.08. Shares rose about 9 percent in extended trading after closing at $31.39. The stock gained 7.2 percent this year through Tuesday’s close. Super Micro reported that revenue in the quarter more than tripled to $19.9 billion from a year earlier. The company raised its sales forecast to $72 billion to $82 billion for the fiscal year ending in 2027, from a previous outlook of $65 billion to $72 billion. It expects AI-related products to represent about 70 percent to 80 percent of sales in that period, Chief Financial Officer Mark Long said. In the first quarter, one large data-center customer accounted for 44 percent of revenue, up from 28 percent in all of 2026. Additionally two clients represented 49 percent and 17 percent of accounts receivable. “Concentration at this level is a consequence of the scale at which AI infrastructure is now being built. A single deployment today can exceed our total quarterly revenue from just one year ago,” Long said. “We expect concentration to stay elevated while these build-outs run, and to moderate as our enterprise and sovereign businesses grow.” Investors have grown increasingly concerned about the heavy borrowing financing the build-out of AI infrastructure. Recent earnings reports from large cloud companies like Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google last week did more to worry investors than reassure them. Super Micro has also been in the spotlight because of a probe accusing a co-founder and two others of illegally diverting billions of dollars’ worth of servers containing Nvidia chips to China. The firm hasn’t been charged and an independent probe concluded Super Micro’s current senior management had no knowledge of the purported scheme.
Block Inc. inched past Wall Street’s profit expectations and outlined a bigger potential settlement with the US Department of Justice. Block’s third-quarter gross profit was up 22 percent to $3.2 billion compared with the average analyst estimate of $3.1 billion. Block now expects $12.6 billion in gross profit for 2026, up from an earlier outlook of $12.5 billion. The company has reached a $964 million deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department related to a longstanding probe, which on a net basis will cost $764 million. Both figures were much higher than the $526 million settlement reserve Block detailed in the prior quarter. Its shares were up 6.2 percent in after-hours trading. Block has been trying to reinvent itself since last year. Square made a concerted effort to lure new customers, especially in the food-and-restaurant space. Cash App unveiled new products and tools. There were also massive job cuts detailed in February and the introduction of internally developed artificial intelligence tools, some of which the company is now selling as a new revenue source. “We believe we’ve meaningfully crossed the chasm of transforming our company from one that creates traditional financial products into one that streams intelligence as people need it,” Jack Dorsey wrote. Block’s share price surged in February after the job cuts were announced, rising from around $50 to as high as $86.92 in August. But the stock has since meandered lower and closed at $76 on Tuesday, well short of its $289 record high. Third-quarter operating expenses, at $2.8 billion, were up. Senior executives said the revamp is delivering results that vastly exceed the company’s expectations. “We have fundamentally rewired our cost base and continued to drive our cost base down,” said Amrita Ahuja. She cited a “rule of 40” metric, saying the company is now attaining “rule of 50.” Owen Jennings pointed to the integration of Cash App and Square users in a program called Neighborhoods, active monthly users on Cash App, and metrics around Block’s AI bets, including a new measure of “first machine intelligence revenue.” Block also posted a roughly $230 million loss from Bitcoin investments.
Amgen Inc. raised its sales and profit forecast for the third time this year. Revenue for the year will be between $38.9 billion and $39.7 billion, compared with its August guidance range of $38.2 billion to $39.4 billion. Amgen expects adjusted profits to range between $22.90 a share and $23.70 a share. In the third quarter, sales grew 8 percent from the previous year to $10.4 billion. Adjusted profits of $6.45 a share easily beat the $5.77 a share average of analyst estimates. Amgen fell 1.4 percent at 5:33 p.m. in New York. Through Tuesday’s close, the shares had gained 41 percent year to date. “Amgen delivered another strong quarter as our strategy for long-term growth continued to produce results,” Chief Executive Officer Robert Bradway said. Sales growth was primarily driven by volume, and seventeen products saw at least double-digit sales increases. It’s the latest drug company to report strong results despite attempts by the Trump administration to rein in drug prices. Last week, Merck & Co., Bristol Myers Squibb Co., and Eli Lilly & Co. all raised their forecasts, while Pfizer Inc. raised its outlook Tuesday. Sales of Repatha and Evenity both came in ahead of expectations, with year-over-year growth rates of 37 percent and 39 percent respectively. Sales of Imdelltra more than doubled. Amgen is striving to bolster sales of newer drugs to make up for declining revenue from older medicines such as Prolia. It’s also testing a new obesity drug. The company continues to deal with efficacy and safety questions over Tavneos. Earlier this year, a top journal retracted the main study used to get the drug approved, and the FDA has proposed pulling Tavneos off the market. Amgen is pushing back and says it continues to believe the benefits outweigh the risks. In the quarter, Tavneos sales declined 2 percent to $105 million.
3M Co. is committing $7.35 billion over nine years to settle litigation related to its use of PFAS chemicals. The commitment would address almost all of the 115,000 to 120,000 personal injury claims. 3M will make a $50 million payment in 2026, and no payments in 2027. Approximately 20 percent of payments are due in the final two years. The deal advances a costly effort to resolve legal claims tied to its history making per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, used in products including stain-proof textiles and firefighting foams. The EPA has concluded that PFAS are connected to increased cancer risks. Plaintiffs have blamed the chemicals for kidney and testicular cancer, thyroid disease, and ulcerative colitis. 3M shares rose 1.7 percent in late trading. The stock has advanced 11 percent this year. Chief Executive Officer William Brown said the settlement “substantially reduces litigation uncertainty.” The company exited PFAS manufacturing at the end of 2025. In 2023, 3M agreed to pay as much as $12.5 billion over thirteen years to US public water suppliers. Last year, 3M reached an agreement to resolve PFAS-related claims in New Jersey, recording a pre-tax charge of about $285 million. Before the personal injuries accord, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated the company’s legal overhang could be as much as $20 billion. 3M is still facing ongoing claims tied to contamination of water sources that could cost it as much as $15 billion to settle.
Canva Inc. announced job cuts and a structural overhaul that will impact more than one-fifth of the workforce after the Sydney-based firm’s growth slowed for the first time in a decade. Some 1,271 people, or 22 percent of Canva’s staff, will lose their jobs, change roles, or relocate to central hubs, Chief Executive Officer Melanie Perkins said. The changes mirror a broader upheaval across the software industry as artificial intelligence allows people to do more on their own without specialty programs. Perkins said Canva needs to become a simpler business and return to running small, empowered teams. “New technology is transforming what people can create, how they create it, and what they expect from the products they use,” she said. “I’ve come to the difficult conclusion that small changes won’t be enough.” She described the reorganization as “the hardest moment in our 13-year history.” Sydney will become the main base for more of Canva’s product teams. Most hybrid staff will spend two to three days in the office a week from January.
Wall Street’s China Rebound and Development Finance
For the few Wall Street firms that have stuck it out in China, persistence is starting to pay off. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s revenue from China grew 20 percent in each of the past two years, and the bank is on pace to double its business in the country by 2030. Morgan Stanley has arranged eleven Chinese share sales and equity-linked offerings worth at least $1 billion so far this year — more than it did in 2021 at the peak of Hong Kong’s previous IPO boom. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is expecting a solid 2027 for its China business after setting a high watermark this year. The rebound marks a sea change from just a few years ago when the country was deemed uninvestable by some foreign firms. Chinese companies are selling more shares, taking out loans, and issuing bonds, and the country’s multinationals are turning to global banks. China “still holds a considerable promise,” even if the dream of conquering the domestic market has faded, said Johannes Petry of Goethe University Frankfurt. “The opportunity is increasingly tied to Chinese capital and companies going out into the world.” As China overhauls its economy to focus on technology, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing, Beijing is encouraging the rise of homegrown titans like BYD Co., Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., and ByteDance Ltd. “In the next five years, a new wave of true multinational corporations will emerge from China,” Alan Ho, JPMorgan’s co-senior country officer for China, said. Citigroup Inc. is benefiting from a rise in corporate banking after winding down its China consumer business. Its year-to-date outbound Chinese client activity is up more than 20 percent. Business from China to Southeast Asia and Europe is up about 30 percent, according to Wenjie Zhang, the bank’s China CEO.
The mood now is a far cry from the gloom of a few years ago. In November 2022, dozens of China-focused investment bankers at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong were dismissed. Similar scenes played out at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and UBS. For much of this year, China-focused bankers have been swamped with work. Driven by larger transaction sizes across tech, AI, and healthcare, Morgan Stanley’s average revenue from their top-ten equity deals has doubled to more than $10 million this year from 2022. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser and Goldman Sachs’ chief David Solomon joined Trump’s delegation to Beijing in May. UBS was handed a coveted role at China’s Financial Street Forum last month. The lender had a record 2025 in China, with revenue up 43 percent. Wall Street CEOs including Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted Pick, and UBS’s Sergio Ermotti were in Hong Kong this week. “The momentum has continued,” Janice Hu of UBS said. Geopolitics may still dominate the headlines, but lenders are increasingly treating the risk as a cost of doing business. US Treasury department guidance in December clarified key exemptions under the outbound investment rule for public-market investments, some convertible bonds, and IPOs. Artificial intelligence is helping redraw the China market landscape. Since last November, 100 AI-related deals in Hong Kong have raised $66 billion, including $28.7 billion in IPOs and $26.2 billion in follow-on stock sales. Chinese companies sold a record $24 billion of shares overseas in July alone. Year-to-date offshore deals reached $90 billion, the most since 2021. China-related mergers and acquisitions climbed to $419 billion, a five-year high. Goldman Sachs has helped lead four of the five largest IPOs in Hong Kong this year, while Morgan Stanley was on half of the top ten. The two American banks joined CICC and GF Capital on Zhongji Innolight Co.’s $7.8 billion IPO, the year’s biggest. At JPMorgan, China headcount on the mainland has more than doubled over the last eight years to about 1,600. China’s payments market is forecast to grow to about $70 trillion by 2031, from $47 trillion this year. Even with the rebound, the Chinese market has failed to match the giddy expectations of 2020. Goldman’s onshore net income nearly tripled in 2025 to a record 1.46 billion yuan ($218 million). JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley posted profits of 984 million yuan and 139 million yuan, respectively. UBS’s profit rose almost fivefold to 730 million yuan. China’s domestic securities industry generated 51 times more profit last year than the 16 international firms operating on the mainland. “If you think about people like Henry Paulson, who were involved in opening up China, there was a lot more hope in China becoming the next big thing than there is today,” Petry said. Global firms have “become smarter about it,” he added. China’s “dual circulation” strategy puts greater emphasis on domestic demand and self-sufficiency. One upcoming test is the proposed Remote Access Security Act, which would extend US export controls on sensitive technology. Citigroup’s Zhang remains upbeat, bolstered by last month’s regulatory approval of new securities licenses. “Geopolitics is complicated, but China is the world’s second-largest economy in which many companies, including ours, need to engage and compete,” Ho at JPMorgan said. “You cannot be a global player and not be in China.”
JPMorgan and HSBC say last month’s formal agreement by the world’s development finance institutions and multilateral development banks to rely more heavily on synthetic risk transfers and collateralized loan obligations opens the door to a new business opportunity. The comments follow an October 1 announcement by 30 MDBs and DFIs declaring their intention to turn to such securitizations for capital relief amid a retreat by rich-world sponsors. It’s “quite a big leap forward” for the MDB sector, and it’s “created an opportunity for us,” Faheen Allibhoy of JPMorgan said. Himesh Patel of HSBC says the move “will create further opportunities across structuring, risk distribution, capital markets execution and investor placement.” The new approach has been unveiled in time for the COP31 summit in Turkey. “A great outcome from COP would be not just placing adaptation and resilience central to the climate-finance domain, but within the financial sector,” said Leslie Maasdorp of British International Investment. Globally, MDBs collectively hold some $1.5 trillion in development assets. “If we attract third-party capital, that preserves our own capital,” said Bart Raemaekers of the Asian Development Bank. “But second, it’s a developmental objective in and of itself to bring private capital to our markets.” Private capital that’s been mobilized is not the same as private risk assumed, according to a recent paper by ODI Global. PGGM expects that willingness to buy into MDB securitizations will increase as the sector becomes more transparent, said Luca Paonessa. The added layer of complexity is creating a role for insurers such as Aon. For CLOs, deals need to be done on a regular basis for a market to develop, Allibhoy said. The decision follows a call by the G-20 in 2024 to revise how MDBs measure their impact. Deutsche Bank described the move as a positive step. Ultimately, the ability to ratchet up climate finance will depend not only on funding capacity but also on the availability of investable projects and sufficient investor demand. “SRTs and CLOs are useful tools but they’re not going to solve the entire issue at hand,” Allibhoy said.
Quant Strategies, Crypto Security, and Insurance Entanglements
Max Stone once nearly blew up D.E. Shaw & Co. When markets turned, the firm lost roughly 30 percent. “If I had been fired, no part of me would have thought that was unfair,” Stone said. “I did nearly destroy a company.” Twenty-eight years later, Stone, now 57, is part of an unusual seven-member executive committee that functions as a hive-mind CEO. Assets recently breached $100 billion, and returns this year have outpaced major rivals. The firm has $125 billion in assets. Competition is picking up from Jane Street Capital and multi-managers like Citadel and Millennium, while artificial intelligence looms as both opportunity and risk. “The stakes are higher, the pace has accelerated,” said Eddie Fishman. For the first time, the firm is going to reserve some of its best investment ideas for itself. Starting January, it will use its big brainstorms to fuel a new fund open to employees. Clients won’t have direct access, although half of the fund’s initial capital will come from the flagship Composite hedge fund. The firm will extend its investor lockup period to up to four years and pass on some costs for new technologies like AI. It also raised about $6 billion in Cogence, its first fund led by flesh-and-blood traders, and pitched it to wealthy individuals. Staff and partner money invested across D.E. strategies has ballooned to more than $15 billion. “It’s clear that prop shops are increasingly competing for similar types of alpha,” said Edwin Jager. The flagship Composite Fund has returned 13 percent annually since its inception in 2001. It was up 15.3 percent this year through September, and the smaller Oculus fund was up 30 percent. The firm was already expensive, charging a 3 percent management fee and taking a 35 percent cut of profits. This year it told Composite fund clients it would add a 0.12 percent technology surcharge. Most clients decline to discuss the firm publicly. Privately, some say they aren’t thrilled about all of the changes. D.E. Shaw points to its track record and a culture that prioritizes long-term success. It has shunned the highly leveraged bond basis trade popular at rivals. “We continuously obsess about the risk of liquidation in markets because the interconnectedness of the levered hedge fund world right now is so significant,” Jager said. “This is the one thing that can bankrupt a firm.”
Binance Holdings Ltd. said the hackers behind a $6.3 billion heist used social engineering techniques including fake job interviews, as well as malicious software. Binance attributed the hack to North Korea. One of the company’s engineers was contacted through a job hunting platform by someone posing as a project director, then interviewed by a person claiming to be the CEO of a fictitious company, and asked to download an assignment containing a “malicious code repository.” “This was not a single mistake or a single breach. It was a campaign built over many months,” said Richard Teng. The attackers “combined fake recruitment interviews, malicious software disguised as legitimate developer tools, compromised devices, and AI techniques.” Nine days before the hack, attackers used the compromised laptop to infiltrate the computers of two more software engineers. The hackers used an “internal AI tool” to gain access. One of those engineers had in June accidentally downloaded malicious software to install what Binance called “a popular AI coding tool.” The techniques are common to North Korea; Palo Alto Networks coined the name “Contagious Interview” for the job-interview tactics. In 2022, North Korean hackers used a fake job offer to trick an engineer for Axie Infinity and pull off a $590 million heist. Three years later they broke into Bybit and stole $1.5 billion. Stablecoin issuers quickly froze almost $3 billion in funds. Binance paused withdrawals for almost two days. By Tuesday, hourly deposits had started exceeding hourly withdrawals. The company said it has almost replenished the stolen cryptocurrency using its corporate treasury and two insurance funds. It is working with the FBI, Secret Service, and Justice Department. In 2026, Binance identified and prevented 57 attempted attacks from North Korean hackers. Initially Bitcoin fell more than 4 percent to nearly $76,000, but has since recovered to around $77,600.
Earvin ‘Magic’ Johnson celebrated the acquisition of Atlanta Life Insurance Company, founded in 1905 by Alonzo Herndon, a former slave. The deal had actually been completed about ten months earlier by Amistad Financial Group, of which Johnson’s mentor and fellow Dodgers owner Mark Walter is a minority shareholder. Three years on, Atlanta Life isn’t yet underwriting new life insurance policies. Since the acquisition, Atlanta Life has taken economic responsibility for hundreds of millions of dollars in potential payouts to EquiTrust clients through reinsurance agreements. Last year, Johnson sold EquiTrust to Amistad. A federal investigation by the Justice Department and SEC is focusing on Walter’s insurance companies’ failure to disclose that more than $20 billion of loans on their books went to his other businesses. Amistad is among intermediaries whose dealings are being looked at. Authorities haven’t accused anyone of wrongdoing. Atlanta Life dates to 1905. In April 2021, AM Best cut its financial strength rating to ‘C’. Amistad later injected $30 million via surplus notes. In 2022, EquiTrust entered into a reinsurance agreement with Atlanta Life representing about $330 million of assets. At the end of last year, the various agreements with Equitrust represented more than 85 percent of Atlanta Life’s total net premiums. The boost helped lift its rating to B++. Prospective customers seeking a quote are redirected to other insurers or told Atlanta Life doesn’t sell its own policies at the moment but partners with carriers like EquiTrust. The company also offers reinsurance to MetLife, Securian, and Prudential, partly as a way for insurers to meet diversity goals. Walter and Johnson have known each other since at least 2012. In 2023, Forbes heralded Johnson as a billionaire, with insurance making up the majority of his net worth. Bloomberg reported last week that Walter is looking to sell the Los Angeles Sparks and a related practice facility for more than $700 million.
International Developments: Growth Revisions, Sports, and Sports Finance
Thailand’s growth forecasts are rising as new factory data reveal a bigger boost from the artificial intelligence boom. Estimates suggest changes to the factory gauge could add roughly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point to Thailand’s 2026 GDP growth rate. Kiatnakin Phatra Securities now sees growth of about 2.8 percent this year, up from 2.5 percent. Krungthai Compass forecasts 2.6 percent, up from 2.3 percent. Standard Chartered expects about 2.3 percent, compared with its previous 2.1 percent projection. Even with those upgrades, Thailand would still be the slowest-growing major economy in Southeast Asia. “The revision raises the measured level of growth but not its breadth,” said Pipat Luengnaruemitchai of Kiatnakin Phatra. The reassessment follows an overhaul of Thailand’s manufacturing production index that added newer factories and products tied to AI and data centers, including laptops, optical transceivers, and backup-power equipment. Those three product groups generated about 802 billion baht ($24 billion) of exports last year, more than 7 percent of Thailand’s shipments. Erica Tay of Maybank estimates the revisions could add 0.2 percentage point to reported growth in 2024, 0.5 point in 2025, and 0.6 point in the first half of 2026. “Thai households and businesses won’t feel richer,” she said. Goldman Sachs estimates first-half GDP growth could be revised to 2.9 percent from 2.4 percent. The gains are concentrated; labor compensation in computers and electronics amounts to just 10.1 percent of export value. The Bank of Thailand raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.4 percent last week. Most research houses are holding off on further revisions until November 16. “We are still in a K-shaped recovery,” said Nattaporn Triratanasirikul of Kasikorn Research Center.
Canada won’t allow Russian athletes to participate in the world junior hockey championships that begin next month in Alberta, Prime Minister Mark Carney said, rejecting a Court of Arbitration for Sport ruling that Russian teams must be allowed to play again. “We will deny” visas, Carney said. “While Russia and Belarus are supporting this illegal, unjustified, horrific war in Ukraine — as long as that’s going on — there will be none of those athletes competing for their countries in Canada.”
British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe’s sports portfolio has included turmoil at Manchester United, an aborted sailing venture, and a cut-short rugby sponsorship. Now he has reason to celebrate. Kimi Antonelli’s Formula One drivers’ title for the Mercedes-Benz F1 team is its first since Ratcliffe’s Ineos bought a third of it in 2020. Mercedes is also on track to win the team championship for the first time since 2021. “You’ll take any win that you can because pretty much all of his sporting assets are underachieving,” said Simon Chadwick of Emlyon Business School. Manchester United has suffered its worst start to a Premier League season in history. Other bets have backfired. In F1, Ineos arrived just after Lewis Hamilton’s period of dominance was ending. Last year, a stake sale valued the team at $6 billion. Away from sport, Ineos idled three of its chemicals plants in Hull in September amid high energy prices. The victory for 20-year-old Antonelli is “a welcome respite for Ratcliffe,” said Kieran Maguire of the University of Liverpool.
Looking ahead, investors will monitor the full tally of midterm results for implications on fiscal policy and regulation, while remaining technology earnings will test the durability of AI infrastructure demand. Thailand’s economic planning agency releases third-quarter GDP on November 16, with the Finance Ministry updating forecasts on November 9. Development banks and commercial lenders will advance discussions on securitizations around the COP31 summit. D.E. Shaw will launch its employee-focused fund in January. Atlanta Life continues efforts to begin underwriting its own policies, and Walter’s insurance entities remain under federal scrutiny.
